Jansanity Score

+5 / +3 / +1 is a disclosed chip. It is never added into total, base, or chaos. Mutating it does not move the receipt.

Voting is not_open. POST /api/fan-bump returns 503 until votes live on persistent storage. Render free-tier memory dies on every deploy and every 15-minute spin-down.

The Monte Carlo rating is the average of (1) the AP / preseason poll rank already on the roster and (2) CFBD / SP+ when CFBD_API_KEY is set and every team has a number — otherwise the existing conference + program prior, labeled as such.

AP / preseason poll averaged with the conference + program prior (CFBD / SP+ not loaded)

N stays at 1,500 while leverage is on. We will not raise it toward 10,000 in this pass.

Leverage measurement on the Week 0 leftover slate: 254 extra runs at N=1,500 took 86 seconds in this environment — too slow to recompute on every request. The published snapshot stores that same two-slice measurement. The engine replays it when the leftover slate, ratings, records, and seed still match. If they do not match, it recomputes. There is no rating-only fallback.

cfp-2026-five-champs-title-games

12-team field. Five automatic bids go to the five highest-ranked conference champions after the title games. Seven at-large. Straight seeding by wins, then rating, then team id. Seeds 1–4 get a first-round bye whether or not they are champions.

Every conference that can earn an autobid plays a championship game in the sim. Title participants are the top two by conference record, then head-to-head, then record vs common opponents, then rating, then id. Independents (Notre Dame and UConn) cannot earn an autobid — they enter only as at-large.

2026 conference membership is local — 138 FBS teams in lib/score/fbs-roster.ts, including the reconstituted Pac-12. CFBD is for schedule, results, and lines, not for who is in which league.

Published Field: 5 autobids + 7 at-large, seeded 1–4 bye. Modal exact-bracket frequency 0.1% is diagnostic only. Unrounded MC seat sums: playoff 12.000000 (target 12) · autobid 5.000000 (target 5). Published playoff P is the early-season blend, renormalized to 12 seats, and sums to 12.00. Published autobid P is Hamilton-rounded to 5 seats and sums to 5.00. AP divergence: 3 Field teams outside the AP top 12 · mean |rank Δ| 9.3 across 25 AP teams.

The Field is the most-likely 12 from the marginals: the conference champion with the highest autobid probability in each of the five highest-ranked conferences (ranked by that champion's playoff probability), then the seven highest playoff probabilities among everyone else. Seeded by playoff probability; byes to seeds 1–4. Each Field team publishes seed (1–12) and fieldReason: autobid | at-large. modalSeed is the old exact bracket — diagnostic only; it does not set byes or Bracket Impact. The First Four Out are the four highest playoff odds outside the Field: near-miss at-large seats, so a higher-p team behind a lower-p autobid is legible. Bubble is everyone else with blended playoff probability ≥ 0.1 before week 9, then ≥ 0.05 (this freeze: ≥ 0.1). Spoiler is below that cut and Field Impact ≥ 3. Alive is 0.01 ≤ p < the bubble cut and below FI_MIN. Out is the rest.

Tiers never change total, base, or chaos. The only Score change in v1.2 is SPOILER_ALERT +3, and only the week a top-10 Field Impact spoiler plays a Field team.

damage(g) = max(0, p_F(F wins) − p_F(T wins)) · fieldImpact = 100 × Σ P(T wins g) × damage(g)

Summed over remaining regular-season games vs Field or Bubble opponents, plus a conference title game when the modal bracket has T in one. P(T wins) is rating-based. A CFBD market line, when present, is display-only.

Field Impact is a published 0–100 number with its own receipt. It is not inside the Score. FI_MIN = 3.

Each remaining game on this week's slate (and next week, flagged lookahead) gets two extra Monte Carlo slices at N=1,500. swing.total is the sum of absolute playoff-probability movement across Field and Bubble teams, including bystanders. jansanityIndex is the 0–100 percentile of that swing inside the week — the ranking key for the top 5.

Those slices live in the Sunday freeze job and are replayed on the request path when the slate, ratings, records, and seed still match. Midweek results (Tuesday MACtion, Friday games) update scores only. Swings recompute at the next freeze. A CFBD hiccup cannot invent a game and cannot block a freeze — the board falls back to the last-good schedule and prints coverage.scheduleAsOf.

After a freeze that sees finals, one game is the Board Wrecker: the final that moved the Field the most. Field / bye / First Four Out flips involving the two teams (and named bystanders) count first. Published playoff-probability seats break ties. Upset is a tag on that same card when the underdog won — not a second award.

A bystander is a team that is not playing, was already named on that game's pre-freeze Games That Matter swing.thirdParty list, and whose publishedPlayoffProbability moved by at least 0.50 seats — half a seat on the same 12-seat vector printed on every receipt. It is not average seed and not bye probability.

Games That Matter and Board Wrecker are the same formula, different tense. The games you are told to watch and the game that turned out to matter both come from the freeze's swing math. Forward, that list is ranked by jansanityIndex. Backward, bystanders still have to have been named on that game's pre-freeze swing.thirdParty list — not a post-hoc scan of whoever moved. One weekly game. Upset is a tag, not a second award.

Board Wrecker is a game-level card on the Sunday board. It is not a line on a team receipt. Receipts stay about a season. Until the next freeze that sees a final, the card stays empty. The Score does not move until the freeze sees the final.

FIRST_EVER membership is CFP_APPEARANCES_2014_2025 only. Ohio State is on that list. NDSU is not. No never-playoff heuristic. The +3 publishes only when playoff P ≥ .15 or week ≥ 9 — otherwise the log is noise.

G5_BID eligible set: American (AAC); Mountain West; Sun Belt; MAC; C-USA; reconstituted Pac-12; independents other than Notre Dame. The highest remaining playoff P in that set gets the bid tag.

An append-only, dated record of every place the Score disagreed with consensus. Written at freeze from the frozen board. Never edited. Cap 15. If more fire, claims pack by trigger priority, then |apDelta|, then Chaos — never Pretender-first. Spoilers (top 5) and First Four Out (the engine's four) are listed in full or omitted. A partial set is a false record.

Pretender Risk on the Ledger only names Field, Bubble, or First Four Out teams (or any pretender from week 6). Early-season claim text names the condition: FCS-only résumé or empty résumé.

Resolution is a sidecar file keyed by entry id. The JSONL line, including claim, cannot be touched by the resolution path. Hit rate is a first-class output. Entries backfilled from Week 0 and Week 1 archives are marked backfilled: true.

One 0–100 number per freeze for how chaotic the season is right now. Four parts, each 0–25: Field churn, probability movement, seed-4 vs first-out spread, and Field+Bubble Chaos mass. Missing parts stay 0 and labeled — never stretched so Week 1 looks exciting.

Published ceilings (jansanity-meter-v1): churn 32 · movement 6.0 seats · gap 0.35 · chaos mass 20. Changing a ceiling without bumping the version is a failed test. A rivalry week that exceeds 6.0 seats pins that part at 25 and publishes the raw seat total so saturation is visible.

Bands: 0–20 Orderly · 21–40 Restless · 41–60 Unsettled · 61–80 Chaos · 81–100 Jansanity. Week 0 and Week 1 are provisional. Field spread (first to last on the 0–100 Score) is a different number and does not carry this name.

Every published playoff and autobid probability is already in the week archives. /api/calibration bins them 0–10%, 10–20%, … Observed hit rates stay empty until the actual Field is committed after Selection Day. The point is that nothing is lost between now and February.

FBS-only. A non-FBS identity in the scoring set halts publication.

2026 NDSU is FBS (Mountain West). The gate is the official 138-team list — Montana fails, NDSU does not.

Core-data failure (missing ratings, corrupt roster, FBS-tagged FCS) halts the run.

Weekly freeze: Sunday 10:00pm America/Denver. Not Wednesday. Intraday edge recomputes after games; movement must come from new football info, not RNG drift.

Helmet Head interpolates the receipt JSON. It cannot produce a number.