Quiet archive · public launch early November

Jansanity Score

The Sunday Receipt · Week 5

What the board says

Frozen Week 5 receipt (weekly-2026-w5-frozen-2026-10-05). Served from the published board-full JSON — this page does not re-score.

Games That Matter this week

Upset Watch: every Field game this week, even a heavy favorite, plus the tagged slate. Deduped. Stake lines come from the board.

UCLA at Oregon

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

AUTOBID ELIMINATORBYE ON THE LINE

Jansanity Index

Georgia at Alabama

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

AUTOBID ELIMINATORBYE ON THE LINE

Jansanity Index

Indiana at Nebraska

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

FIELD VS FIELDAUTOBID ELIMINATOR

Jansanity Index

LSU at Kentucky

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

Jansanity Index

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

AUTOBID ELIMINATOR

Jansanity Index

See the rest of Upset Watch · 2 more

Houston at Kansas State

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

AUTOBID ELIMINATOR

Jansanity Index

Iowa State at BYU

Week 6 · lookahead · 2026-10-10

SPOILER ALERTAUTOBID ELIMINATOR

Jansanity Index

Board Wrecker

Upset

The final that moved the Field the most. Not a vibe award. Not a line on a team receipt.

Pittsburgh 35 at Virginia Tech 33

wreck 20.1 · 2 Field/bye/FFO flips · 0.07 published seats

In · Pittsburgh

What changed

Score Δ vs last Sunday's frozen board. Field tape is who entered, left, or swapped a bye.

Risers

Northwestern+15.3 · r+28
Memphis+14.8 · r+25
Missouri+13.1 · r+21
Houston+12.2 · r+13
North Dakota State+11.4 · r+11

Fallers

Cincinnati-9.0 · r-23
South Florida-8.7 · r-26
Mississippi State-6.0 · r-9
Florida-5.7 · r-15
UCLA-5.3 · r-14

Field tape

In · PittsburghIn · Texas TechOut · Mississippi StateOut · Texas

Chaos risers

Memphis+7.9 · r+25
Northwestern+6.5 · r+28
North Dakota State+6.3 · r+11

Loading board…

Jansanity Meter

36Restless

Movement 2.12 seats

Field spread 47.6 pts — first to last on the receipt. It is not the Meter.

Full board

#	Team	Rec	Total	Base	Chaos	Ply	Rsm	Traj	Conf.
1	Miami (FL) ACC	5–0	52.9	43.8	9.1	22.0	15.0	6.8	Established
2	Ohio State Big Ten	4–1	52.5	43.5	9.0	22.5	15.0	5.9	Established
3	Georgia SEC	5–0	51.4	42.1	9.3	20.6	15.0	6.4	Established
4	James Madison Sun Belt	5–0	49.7	35.6	14.1	14.7	13.8	7.1	Established
5	Nebraska Big Ten	5–0	48.3	34.6	13.7	13.1	15.0	6.5	Established
6	Pittsburgh ACC	5–0	45.0	31.6	13.4	9.9	15.0	6.7	Established
7	Oregon Big Ten	3–1	42.3	33.1	9.2	17.0	10.7	5.3	Established
8	Texas Tech Big 12	5–0	42.2	32.8	9.4	11.4	15.0	6.4	Established
9	BYU Big 12	4–0	41.6	30.6	11.0	11.4	12.6	6.6	Established
10	LSU SEC	4–1	41.6	32.2	9.4	11.2	15.0	5.9	Established
11	Indiana Big Ten	5–0	41.4	32.1	9.3	10.8	15.0	6.3	Established
12	Texas SEC	4–0	39.2	30.4	8.8	9.0	15.0	6.4	Established
13	Mississippi State SEC	4–1	39.2	26.7	12.5	5.6	15.0	6.2	Established
14	Notre Dame Independent	5–0	38.8	32.0	6.8	10.4	15.0	6.6	Established
15	Alabama SEC	5–0	38.5	29.7	8.8	7.3	15.0	7.4	Established
16	North Dakota State Mountain West	5–0	38.1	26.0	12.1	5.7	13.5	6.8	Established
17	Houston Big 12	4–1	37.0	26.2	10.8	7.0	13.0	6.2	Established
18	Memphis American	4–1	35.9	23.4	12.5	7.2	10.4	5.8	Established
19	Missouri SEC	4–1	34.7	25.2	9.5	4.6	14.3	6.3	Established
20	Northwestern Big Ten	3–1	34.5	22.4	12.1	6.3	10.1	6.0	Established
21	Louisiana Sun Belt	4–1	34.1	22.1	12.0	5.6	10.3	6.2	Established
22	Georgia State Sun Belt	4–1	33.0	21.0	12.0	5.5	9.4	6.1	Established
23	USC Big Ten	5–1	32.6	25.8	6.8	5.1	15.0	5.7	Established
24	Texas A&M SEC	3–2	32.5	24.0	8.5	6.1	13.4	4.5	Established
25	Ole Miss SEC	3–1	32.3	25.7	6.6	7.8	12.9	5.1	Established
26	UCLA Big Ten	4–0	31.2	25.5	5.7	3.6	15.0	6.9	Established
27	Baylor Big 12	4–1	30.3	22.2	8.1	2.9	12.9	6.4	Established
28	Florida SEC	4–1	30.2	23.5	6.7	2.4	15.0	6.1	Established
29	SMU ACC	4–1	29.8	22.9	6.9	5.5	12.1	5.3	Established
30	Minnesota Big Ten	4–1	29.8	22.7	7.1	3.6	13.8	5.3	Established
31	Duke ACC	4–0	29.3	23.0	6.3	4.2	12.1	6.7	Established
32	Kentucky SEC	4–1	28.7	23.1	5.6	2.7	14.7	5.7	Established
33	Tennessee SEC	4–1	27.5	22.6	4.9	3.2	13.3	6.0	Established
34	Michigan Big Ten	3–2	27.3	21.2	6.1	4.4	11.9	5.0	Established
35	Utah Big 12	4–0	26.9	22.7	4.2	3.3	12.6	6.8	Established
36	Oklahoma SEC	2–2	25.6	18.6	7.0	6.5	7.8	4.3	Established
37	Wake Forest ACC	4–1	25.6	22.3	3.3	1.4	15.0	5.9	Established
38	Iowa Big Ten	4–1	25.5	21.1	4.4	2.5	13.2	5.3	Established
39	Penn State Big Ten	3–2	25.2	19.8	5.4	3.9	11.1	4.8	Established
40	Wisconsin Big Ten	4–1	24.8	21.4	3.4	1.5	13.9	5.9	Established
41	Cincinnati Big 12	4–1	24.6	20.5	4.1	2.4	12.6	5.5	Established
42	Boise State Pac-12	4–1	24.1	20.9	3.2	2.0	12.6	6.4	Established
43	Clemson ACC	3–2	23.9	19.3	4.6	1.4	12.6	5.2	Established
44	Florida Atlantic American	4–1	23.6	16.5	7.1	3.3	7.6	5.7	Established
45	Auburn SEC	3–2	23.6	20.2	3.4	1.5	13.8	4.9	Established
46	Washington Big Ten	3–2	23.2	15.8	7.4	3.7	7.4	4.6	Established
47	South Florida American	4–1	23.1	17.0	6.1	4.0	7.3	5.7	Established
48	Oklahoma State Big 12	3–1	22.7	18.9	3.8	2.4	10.7	5.9	Established
49	Arizona Big 12	4–1	22.7	19.4	3.3	1.5	12.0	5.9	Established
50	Virginia Tech ACC	4–1	22.7	19.4	3.3	1.4	11.9	6.1	Established
51	New Mexico Mountain West	4–1	22.4	18.5	3.9	1.7	10.3	6.5	Established
52	Toledo MAC	4–1	22.1	18.4	3.7	1.9	10.3	6.2	Established
53	NC State ACC	3–2	21.8	16.5	5.3	2.8	9.0	4.7	Established
54	Liberty CUSA	4–1	21.0	17.4	3.6	1.6	9.5	6.3	Established
55	UTSA American	4–1	20.5	18.1	2.4	1.1	10.9	6.0	Established
56	Kansas State Big 12	3–1	20.3	15.8	4.5	2.7	7.6	5.5	Established
57	Iowa State Big 12	3–2	20.2	15.6	4.6	2.3	8.5	4.9	Established
58	Fresno State Pac-12	4–1	19.9	17.5	2.4	1.2	10.5	5.8	Established
59	Florida State ACC	3–2	19.6	16.2	3.4	1.7	8.9	5.5	Established
60	UCF Big 12	3–2	19.5	16.2	3.3	1.4	9.5	5.3	Established
61	North Texas American	3–2	19.2	15.8	3.4	1.8	8.7	5.3	Established
62	Virginia ACC	3–2	18.4	15.1	3.3	1.4	8.9	4.8	Established
63	Vanderbilt SEC	3–2	18.0	14.6	3.4	1.5	8.4	4.7	Established
64	Central Michigan MAC	3–2	17.8	14.2	3.6	1.8	7.0	5.4	Established
65	West Virginia Big 12	3–2	17.7	14.4	3.3	1.4	8.1	4.8	Established
66	Tulsa American	3–2	17.6	15.2	2.4	1.1	8.6	5.5	Established
67	Michigan State Big Ten	2–3	17.5	14.3	3.2	1.5	8.5	4.3	Established
68	Louisville ACC	2–3	16.9	13.5	3.4	2.2	6.4	4.8	Established
69	Oregon State Pac-12	3–2	16.9	14.5	2.4	1.1	7.8	5.6	Established
70	UNLV Mountain West	3–2	16.0	13.8	2.2	1.0	7.7	5.2	Established
71	Ohio MAC	3–2	15.8	13.4	2.4	1.2	6.8	5.4	Established
72	Purdue Big Ten	2–3	15.5	12.3	3.2	1.5	6.3	4.5	Established
73	Air Force Mountain West	3–1	15.4	13.4	2.0	1.2	6.4	5.8	Established
74	South Alabama Sun Belt	3–2	15.2	13.0	2.2	1.0	6.8	5.3	Established
75	Appalachian State Sun Belt	3–1	15.2	13.1	2.1	1.0	6.3	5.7	Established
76	Western Michigan MAC	3–2	15.2	13.1	2.1	0.9	6.6	5.6	Established
77	Jacksonville State CUSA	3–2	15.2	13.2	2.0	0.8	6.7	5.6	Established
78	Arkansas SEC	2–3	14.9	11.7	3.2	1.5	6.1	4.1	Established
79	UAB American	3–2	14.9	12.5	2.4	1.1	6.7	4.7	Established
80	North Carolina ACC	2–2	14.7	12.0	2.7	2.0	5.2	4.8	Established
81	Texas State Pac-12	2–3	14.7	11.1	3.6	1.1	5.2	4.8	Established
82	Tulane American	2–2	14.5	12.4	2.1	1.3	6.5	4.6	Established
83	Illinois Big Ten	2–3	14.4	11.2	3.2	1.5	5.6	4.1	Established
84	Maryland Big Ten	2–3	14.4	11.2	3.2	1.5	5.5	4.1	Established
85	Temple American	2–3	14.3	10.7	3.6	1.1	5.0	4.6	Established
86	Marshall Sun Belt	3–2	14.3	12.1	2.2	1.0	6.4	4.8	Established
87	South Carolina SEC	2–3	14.2	11.0	3.2	1.5	5.1	4.4	Established
88	Arizona State Big 12	2–2	14.0	11.1	2.9	1.6	5.3	4.3	Established
89	Stanford ACC	2–3	14.0	10.9	3.1	1.4	5.6	3.9	Established
90	Colorado Big 12	2–3	13.9	10.7	3.2	1.4	5.4	3.9	Established
91	California ACC	2–3	13.6	10.5	3.1	1.4	5.4	3.8	Established
92	Boston College ACC	2–3	13.6	10.5	3.1	1.4	5.2	3.9	Established
93	TCU Big 12	2–3	13.5	10.4	3.1	1.4	4.8	4.2	Established
94	Kansas Big 12	2–2	12.9	10.2	2.7	1.8	4.1	4.3	Established
95	Syracuse ACC	2–2	12.8	9.9	2.9	1.5	4.1	4.3	Established
96	Louisiana Tech Sun Belt	2–2	12.8	11.1	1.7	1.2	4.7	5.2	Established
97	Eastern Michigan MAC	3–3	12.6	10.4	2.2	1.5	4.3	4.7	Established
98	Army American	2–2	12.3	10.2	2.1	1.3	4.1	4.9	Established
99	San Diego State Pac-12	2–3	12.3	10.1	2.2	1.1	4.8	4.2	Established
100	UConn Independent	2–3	12.0	9.9	2.1	1.0	4.2	4.7	Established
101	Miami (OH) MAC	2–3	12.0	10.2	1.8	0.9	4.5	4.7	Established
102	Colorado State Pac-12	2–3	11.9	9.7	2.2	1.1	4.5	4.1	Established
103	Kent State MAC	2–3	11.4	9.6	1.8	0.9	4.0	4.7	Established
104	Utah State Pac-12	1–4	11.0	9.0	2.0	1.1	4.4	3.5	Established
105	Georgia Southern Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	2–3	9.9	9.3	0.6	1.0	3.8	4.6	Established
106	East Carolina American Pretender Risk −4	2–2	9.5	9.5	0.0	1.2	3.4	4.8	Established
107	New Mexico State CUSA Pretender Risk −4	2–3	9.2	9.2	0.0	0.8	3.9	4.4	Established
108	Delaware CUSA Pretender Risk −4	2–3	9.2	9.2	0.0	0.8	3.8	4.6	Established
109	Arkansas State Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	2–3	9.1	9.1	0.0	0.9	3.7	4.5	Established
110	Troy Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	2–2	9.0	9.0	0.0	1.0	3.4	4.6	Established
111	Middle Tennessee CUSA Pretender Risk −4	2–3	9.0	9.0	0.0	0.8	3.7	4.5	Established
112	Hawaii Mountain West	0–0	8.3	7.6	0.7	1.8	0.8	5.0	Established
113	San Jose State Mountain West	0–0	8.3	7.6	0.7	1.8	0.8	5.0	Established
114	Bowling Green MAC Pretender Risk −4	1–4	8.2	8.2	0.0	0.9	3.7	3.6	Established
115	UMass MAC	0–0	8.1	7.4	0.7	1.6	0.8	5.0	Established
116	FIU CUSA	0–0	8.0	7.3	0.7	1.5	0.8	5.0	Established
117	Nevada Mountain West Pretender Risk −4	1–3	7.5	7.5	0.0	1.1	3.1	3.3	Established
118	Sam Houston CUSA Pretender Risk −4	1–3	6.7	6.7	0.0	0.9	1.3	4.6	Established
119	Rice American Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.5	6.5	0.0	1.1	1.6	3.8	Established
120	Charlotte American	0–5	6.5	4.7	1.8	1.1	1.1	2.5	Established
121	Missouri State CUSA Pretender Risk −4	1–3	6.5	6.5	0.0	0.9	1.3	4.3	Established
122	Kennesaw State CUSA Pretender Risk −4	1–3	6.5	6.5	0.0	0.9	1.2	4.4	Established
123	Washington State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.4	6.4	0.0	1.1	1.7	3.6	Established
124	Northern Illinois Mountain West	0–4	6.4	4.9	1.5	1.1	1.0	2.8	Established
125	Georgia Tech ACC Pretender Risk −4	1–3	6.3	6.3	0.0	1.5	1.3	3.5	Established
126	UTEP Mountain West Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.3	6.3	0.0	1.0	1.6	3.7	Established
127	Wyoming Mountain West Pretender Risk −4	2–3	6.2	6.2	0.0	1.0	1.4	3.9	Established
128	Old Dominion Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.2	6.2	0.0	0.9	1.4	3.8	Established
129	Louisiana–Monroe Sun Belt	0–5	6.2	4.6	1.6	0.9	1.0	2.7	Established
130	Navy American Pretender Risk −4	1–3	6.1	6.1	0.0	1.3	1.1	3.8	Established
131	Buffalo MAC Pretender Risk −4	2–3	6.0	6.0	0.0	0.9	1.4	3.8	Established
132	Ball State MAC Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.0	6.0	0.0	0.9	1.4	3.7	Established
133	Western Kentucky CUSA Pretender Risk −4	1–4	6.0	6.0	0.0	0.8	1.6	3.6	Established
134	Rutgers Big Ten Pretender Risk −4	1–4	5.9	5.6	0.3	1.5	1.6	2.4	Established
135	Southern Miss Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	1–3	5.9	5.9	0.0	1.0	1.2	3.7	Established
136	Akron MAC Pretender Risk −4	1–4	5.9	5.9	0.0	0.9	1.4	3.7	Established
137	Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4	1–4	5.5	5.5	0.0	0.9	1.1	3.4	Established
138	Sacramento State MAC Pretender Risk −4	1–4	5.3	5.3	0.0	0.8	1.1	3.4	Established

Base — can they get there/Chaos — how much fun if they do

The Field

The most-likely 12: five conference autobids plus seven at-large, seeded by playoff probability. Byes to seeds 1–4.

First Four Out

Highest playoff odds outside the Field. Explains absences like a lower-p conference champion taking an autobid seat.

The Bubble

Not in the most-likely 12, but still in the conversation. Playoff P ≥ 10% until week 9, then ≥ 5%.

The Spoilers

No realistic path of their own. Can still end someone else's season.

New MexicoFI 32.8

5.0% playoff odds

base 18.5/60chaos 3.9/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: North Dakota State
Week 8 · 51% to win · −2.3 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

BaylorFI 29.5

8.0% playoff odds

base 22.2/60chaos 8.1/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 12 · 50% to win · −2.8 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

KentuckyFI 26.5

7.0% playoff odds

base 23.1/60chaos 5.6/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: LSU
Week 6 · 47% to win · −2.1 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

Florida AtlanticFI 24.2

9.0% playoff odds

base 16.5/60chaos 7.1/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: South Florida
Week 15 · 51% to win · −1.7 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

CincinnatiFI 23.3

6.0% playoff odds

base 20.5/60chaos 4.1/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 8 · 42% to win · −2.6 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

UtahFI 22.6

9.0% playoff odds

base 22.7/60chaos 4.2/40 · hatched = provisional

Can wreck: BYU
Week 10 · 57% to win · −2.2 pts

No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.

65 spoilers this week · top 6 by Field Impact

Jansanity Score · Week 5 receipt