6.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 12 · 50% to win · −2.2 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
Frozen Week 6 receipt (weekly-2026-w6-frozen-2026-10-12). Served from the published board-full JSON — this page does not re-score.
Upset Watch: every Field game this week, even a heavy favorite, plus the tagged slate. Deduped. Stake lines come from the board.
Nebraska at Oregon
Week 7 · lookahead · 2026-10-18
Ohio State at Indiana
Week 7 · lookahead · 2026-10-17
Oklahoma State at Houston
Week 7 · lookahead · 2026-10-17
Georgia State at James Madison
Week 7 · lookahead · 2026-10-17
Arizona State at Texas Tech
Week 7 · lookahead · 2026-10-17
The final that moved the Field the most. Not a vibe award. Not a line on a team receipt.
Houston 35 at Kansas State 16
wreck 20.1 · 2 Field/bye/FFO flips · 0.15 published seats
Score Δ vs last Sunday's frozen board. Field tape is who entered, left, or swapped a bye.
Risers
Fallers
Field tape
Chaos risers
Loading board…
Jansanity Meter
Movement 2.34 seats
Field spread 49.4 pts — first to last on the receipt. It is not the Meter.
| # | Team | Rec | Total | Base | Chaos | Ply | Rsm | Traj | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State Big Ten | 5–1 | 54.4 | 45.5 | 8.9 | 24.5 | 15.0 | 6.0 | Established |
| 2 | James Madison Sun Belt | 6–0 | 54.0 | 39.3 | 14.7 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 6.9 | Established |
| 3 | Georgia SEC | 6–0 | 53.6 | 44.3 | 9.3 | 22.8 | 15.0 | 6.5 | Established |
| 4 | Miami (FL) ACC | 5–0 | 52.9 | 43.8 | 9.1 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 6.8 | Established |
| 5 | Nebraska Big Ten | 5–1 | 47.0 | 32.9 | 14.1 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 6.1 | Established |
| 6 | BYU Big 12 | 5–0 | 46.7 | 35.1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 6.7 | Established |
| 7 | Memphis American | 5–1 | 46.3 | 32.6 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 14.8 | 5.9 | Established |
| 8 | Indiana Big Ten | 6–0 | 45.6 | 35.7 | 9.9 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 6.4 | Established |
| 9 | Houston Big 12 | 5–1 | 45.1 | 33.2 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 15.0 | 6.5 | Established |
| 10 | Missouri SEC | 5–1 | 44.2 | 31.1 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 15.0 | 6.4 | Established |
| 11 | Pittsburgh ACC | 5–1 | 43.4 | 28.5 | 14.9 | 7.5 | 15.0 | 6.0 | Established |
| 12 | LSU SEC | 4–2 | 41.8 | 30.8 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 15.0 | 5.6 | Established |
| 13 | Texas Tech Big 12 | 5–0 | 40.9 | 31.7 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 15.0 | 6.5 | Established |
| 14 | Northwestern Big Ten | 4–1 | 40.0 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | Established |
| 15 | Oregon Big Ten | 3–2 | 39.7 | 30.2 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.1 | Established |
| 16 | Texas SEC | 4–1 | 38.2 | 28.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 15.0 | 5.9 | Established |
| 17 | Ole Miss SEC | 4–1 | 38.0 | 29.0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 15.0 | 5.4 | Established |
| 18 | Notre Dame Independent | 6–0 | 37.6 | 29.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 15.0 | 6.5 | Established |
| 19 | UCLA Big Ten | 5–0 | 36.6 | 26.5 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 15.0 | 6.9 | Established |
| 20 | Mississippi State SEC | 4–1 | 36.2 | 26.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 15.0 | 6.1 | Established |
| 21 | Alabama SEC | 5–1 | 34.4 | 27.7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 15.0 | 6.9 | Established |
| 22 | Oklahoma SEC | 3–2 | 32.4 | 24.8 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 4.8 | Established |
| 23 | USC Big Ten | 6–1 | 32.4 | 25.5 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 15.0 | 5.4 | Established |
| 24 | Texas A&M SEC | 3–3 | 32.3 | 23.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 13.9 | 4.2 | Established |
| 25 | Kentucky SEC | 5–1 | 30.8 | 24.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 15.0 | 5.7 | Established |
| 26 | Utah Big 12 | 5–0 | 30.7 | 25.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 15.0 | 6.7 | Established |
| 27 | Oklahoma State Big 12 | 4–1 | 30.1 | 24.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 15.0 | 6.0 | Established |
| 28 | Tennessee SEC | 5–1 | 29.6 | 24.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 15.0 | 6.1 | Established |
| 29 | Boise State Pac-12 | 5–1 | 29.2 | 25.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 15.0 | 6.6 | Established |
| 30 | SMU ACC | 4–1 | 29.0 | 21.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 11.7 | 5.3 | Established |
| 31 | North Dakota State Mountain West | 5–1 | 28.1 | 24.1 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 14.6 | 6.1 | Established |
| 32 | Iowa Big Ten | 5–1 | 28.0 | 23.9 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 15.0 | 5.8 | Established |
| 33 | Baylor Big 12 | 4–1 | 27.7 | 21.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | Established |
| 34 | Michigan Big Ten | 3–2 | 27.6 | 21.4 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 4.9 | Established |
| 35 | Georgia State Sun Belt | 4–1 | 27.0 | 19.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 9.4 | 6.0 | Established |
| 36 | Liberty CUSA | 5–1 | 27.0 | 22.8 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | Established |
| 37 | Florida SEC | 4–2 | 27.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 15.0 | 5.4 | Established |
| 38 | North Texas American | 4–2 | 26.9 | 21.7 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 12.1 | 5.4 | Established |
| 39 | Louisiana Sun Belt | 4–2 | 26.4 | 20.2 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 10.4 | 5.8 | Established |
| 40 | Arizona Big 12 | 5–1 | 26.1 | 22.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 15.0 | 6.2 | Established |
| 41 | Louisville ACC | 3–3 | 26.0 | 20.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 11.5 | 5.4 | Established |
| 42 | Wake Forest ACC | 5–1 | 25.9 | 22.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 15.0 | 6.1 | Established |
| 43 | Penn State Big Ten | 3–3 | 25.5 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 11.6 | 4.5 | Established |
| 44 | Duke ACC | 4–1 | 25.2 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 12.8 | 5.9 | Established |
| 45 | UTSA American | 5–1 | 24.8 | 22.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 15.0 | 6.2 | Established |
| 46 | Wisconsin Big Ten | 4–1 | 24.7 | 21.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 13.8 | 5.9 | Established |
| 47 | Minnesota Big Ten | 4–2 | 24.5 | 20.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 14.3 | 4.6 | Established |
| 48 | Clemson ACC | 3–2 | 24.1 | 19.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | Established |
| 49 | Virginia ACC | 4–2 | 23.8 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 12.9 | 4.7 | Established |
| 50 | Washington Big Ten | 3–3 | 23.4 | 15.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | Established |
| 51 | Cincinnati Big 12 | 4–1 | 23.2 | 19.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 12.4 | 5.6 | Established |
| 52 | Auburn SEC | 3–2 | 22.9 | 19.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 13.2 | 4.8 | Established |
| 53 | Virginia Tech ACC | 4–2 | 22.7 | 19.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 5.4 | Established |
| 54 | North Carolina ACC | 3–2 | 22.6 | 17.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 10.2 | 5.3 | Established |
| 55 | Purdue Big Ten | 3–3 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 11.9 | 5.2 | Established |
| 56 | UNLV Mountain West | 4–2 | 21.5 | 19.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 12.6 | 5.7 | Established |
| 57 | Ohio MAC | 4–2 | 21.4 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10.1 | 5.8 | Established |
| 58 | Florida Atlantic American | 4–1 | 21.2 | 15.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 5.6 | Established |
| 59 | Oregon State Pac-12 | 4–2 | 20.8 | 18.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | Established |
| 60 | South Carolina SEC | 3–3 | 20.5 | 16.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 5.0 | Established |
| 61 | New Mexico Mountain West | 4–1 | 20.5 | 17.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | Established |
| 62 | UCF Big 12 | 3–3 | 19.9 | 16.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 4.9 | Established |
| 63 | Fresno State Pac-12 | 4–2 | 19.8 | 17.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | Established |
| 64 | California ACC | 3–3 | 19.5 | 16.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 10.3 | 4.4 | Established |
| 65 | Air Force Mountain West | 4–1 | 19.3 | 17.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 10.0 | 6.0 | Established |
| 66 | Illinois Big Ten | 3–3 | 19.2 | 15.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 9.7 | 4.3 | Established |
| 67 | Florida State ACC | 3–3 | 19.2 | 15.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 9.5 | 4.9 | Established |
| 68 | Western Michigan MAC | 4–2 | 19.0 | 16.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 10.0 | 5.9 | Established |
| 69 | South Alabama Sun Belt | 4–2 | 18.9 | 16.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 10.2 | 5.5 | Established |
| 70 | NC State ACC | 3–3 | 18.8 | 15.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | Established |
| 71 | South Florida American | 4–2 | 18.6 | 15.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 7.9 | 5.3 | Established |
| 72 | Iowa State Big 12 | 3–3 | 18.6 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | Established |
| 73 | Toledo MAC | 4–2 | 18.4 | 16.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 10.2 | 5.1 | Established |
| 74 | West Virginia Big 12 | 3–3 | 18.3 | 14.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 4.5 | Established |
| 75 | Vanderbilt SEC | 3–3 | 18.0 | 14.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | Established |
| 76 | Michigan State Big Ten | 2–4 | 17.9 | 14.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | Established |
| 77 | Jacksonville State CUSA | 4–2 | 17.9 | 15.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 5.6 | Established |
| 78 | Kansas State Big 12 | 3–2 | 17.8 | 14.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 4.8 | Established |
| 79 | Tulsa American | 3–3 | 17.4 | 14.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | Established |
| 80 | Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | 3–2 | 17.3 | 15.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | Established |
| 81 | Eastern Michigan MAC | 4–3 | 17.0 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | Established |
| 82 | Army American | 3–2 | 16.0 | 13.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 5.1 | Established |
| 83 | UConn Independent | 3–3 | 15.9 | 13.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | Established |
| 84 | Troy Sun Belt | 3–2 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | Established |
| 85 | Maryland Big Ten | 2–4 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | Established |
| 86 | East Carolina American | 3–2 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 5.2 | Established |
| 87 | Central Michigan MAC | 3–3 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 4.9 | Established |
| 88 | Arkansas SEC | 2–4 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | Established |
| 89 | UAB American | 3–3 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 7.4 | 4.4 | Established |
| 90 | Stanford ACC | 2–4 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 4.1 | Established |
| 91 | Texas State Pac-12 | 2–3 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | Established |
| 92 | Utah State Pac-12 | 2–4 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 3.9 | Established |
| 93 | Appalachian State Sun Belt | 3–2 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | Established |
| 94 | Georgia Tech ACC | 2–3 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | Established |
| 95 | Arizona State Big 12 | 3–2 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | Established |
| 96 | Tulane American | 2–3 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 4.3 | Established |
| 97 | Colorado Big 12 | 2–3 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 3.9 | Established |
| 98 | San Diego State Pac-12 | 2–4 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | Established |
| 99 | Temple American | 2–4 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | Established |
| 100 | Marshall Sun Belt | 3–3 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | Established |
| 101 | Bowling Green MAC | 2–4 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | Established |
| 102 | Boston College ACC | 2–3 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | Established |
| 103 | Kansas Big 12 | 2–3 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | Established |
| 104 | TCU Big 12 | 2–3 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | Established |
| 105 | Georgia Southern Sun Belt | 2–4 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | Established |
| 106 | Syracuse ACC | 2–3 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | Established |
| 107 | Nevada Mountain West | 2–3 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 4.1 | Established |
| 108 | Miami (OH) MAC | 3–3 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | Established |
| 109 | Buffalo MAC | 3–3 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | Established |
| 110 | Navy American | 2–3 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 4.4 | Established |
| 111 | Old Dominion Sun Belt | 2–4 | 12.4 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 4.5 | Established |
| 112 | Colorado State Pac-12 | 2–3 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | Established |
| 113 | Western Kentucky CUSA | 2–4 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 | Established |
| 114 | Kent State MAC | 2–4 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | Established |
| 115 | New Mexico State CUSA | 2–4 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 | Established |
| 116 | Delaware CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 2–3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 4.7 | Established |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 2–3 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 4.5 | Established |
| 118 | Arkansas State Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 4.2 | Established |
| 119 | Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Established |
| 120 | Hawaii Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Established |
| 121 | San Jose State Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Established |
| 122 | UMass MAC | 0–0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Established |
| 123 | FIU CUSA | 0–0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Established |
| 124 | Washington State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | Established |
| 125 | Charlotte American | 0–6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.6 | Established |
| 126 | Wyoming Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.1 | Established |
| 127 | Kennesaw State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 1–4 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4.3 | Established |
| 128 | Northern Illinois Mountain West | 0–5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | Established |
| 129 | Sam Houston CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 1–4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4.3 | Established |
| 130 | Rice American Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | Established |
| 131 | UTEP Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 | Established |
| 132 | Louisiana–Monroe Sun Belt | 0–5 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.7 | Established |
| 133 | Ball State MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | Established |
| 134 | Rutgers Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 1–4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | Established |
| 135 | Akron MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 3.6 | Established |
| 136 | Southern Miss Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 1–4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 | Established |
| 137 | Missouri State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 1–4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.6 | Established |
| 138 | Sacramento State MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3.2 | Established |
Base — can they get there/Chaos — how much fun if they do
The most-likely 12: five conference autobids plus seven at-large, seeded by playoff probability. Byes to seeds 1–4.
Highest playoff odds outside the Field. Explains absences like a lower-p conference champion taking an autobid seat.
Not in the most-likely 12, but still in the conversation. Playoff P ≥ 10% until week 9, then ≥ 5%.
No realistic path of their own. Can still end someone else's season.
6.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 12 · 50% to win · −2.2 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
5.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 8 · 42% to win · −2.0 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
4.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Nebraska
Week 10 · 42% to win · −2.2 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
9.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Indiana
Week 12 · 33% to win · −2.7 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
6.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Northwestern
Week 12 · 47% to win · −1.9 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
4.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: LSU
Week 8 · 44% to win · −1.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
51 spoilers this week · top 6 by Field Impact