5.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: UTSA
Week 15 · 51% to win · −2.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
Frozen Week 7 (corrected) receipt (weekly-2026-w7-corrected-2026-10-20T20-34-45Z). Served from the published board-full JSON — this page does not re-score.
Upset Watch: every Field game this week, even a heavy favorite, plus the tagged slate. Deduped. Stake lines come from the board.
North Dakota State at New Mexico
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-25
Houston at Utah
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-25
Indiana at Michigan
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Boise State at Washington State
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Liberty at Kennesaw State
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-22
Michigan State at UCLA
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
BYU at UCF
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Tennessee at South Carolina
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Ole Miss at Texas
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
Pittsburgh at Miami (FL)
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-24
James Madison at Appalachian State
Week 8 · lookahead · 2026-10-22
The final that moved the Field the most. Not a vibe award. Not a line on a team receipt.
Alabama 10 at Tennessee 26
wreck 20.2 · 2 Field/bye/FFO flips · 0.24 published seats
Score Δ vs last Sunday's frozen board. Field tape is who entered, left, or swapped a bye.
Risers
Fallers
Northwestern won and dropped 21.4: Résumé 13.3 → 7.2.
LSU won and dropped 19.7: Résumé 15.0 → 7.6.
Houston won and dropped 17.3: Résumé 15.0 → 8.2.
Oregon won and dropped 15.2: Volatility 7.0 → 1.0.
Texas A&M won and dropped 15.1: Résumé 13.9 → 5.1.
Ohio State won and dropped 10.8: Playoff 24.5 → 18.2.
Michigan won and dropped 9.5: Résumé 12.3 → 6.4.
Tulsa won and dropped 9.1: Résumé 9.0 → 2.9.
Virginia Tech won and dropped 9.1: Résumé 12.5 → 5.2.
Washington won and dropped 9.0: Volatility 4.9 → 0.0.
Florida won and dropped 8.6: Résumé 15.0 → 8.5.
Miami (FL) won and dropped 7.1: Résumé 15.0 → 8.6.
SMU won and dropped 6.9: Résumé 11.7 → 6.8.
North Carolina won and dropped 6.6: Volatility 3.5 → 0.0.
Auburn won and dropped 6.5: Résumé 13.2 → 7.6.
Appalachian State won and dropped 6.2: Résumé 6.9 → 2.7.
Kentucky won and dropped 6.1: Résumé 15.0 → 10.6.
West Virginia won and dropped 6.0: Résumé 9.0 → 4.5.
Texas State won and dropped 5.9: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
UAB won and dropped 5.6: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
San Diego State won and dropped 5.5: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
James Madison won and dropped 5.4: Résumé 15.0 → 7.4.
Oregon State won and dropped 5.1: Résumé 11.5 → 4.9.
Tulane won and dropped 4.6: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
Ole Miss won and dropped 4.3: Résumé 15.0 → 9.6.
Boston College won and dropped 3.8: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
Western Kentucky won and dropped 3.8: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
TCU won and dropped 3.5: Pretender Risk 0.0 → -4.0.
Field tape
Chaos risers
Loading board…
Jansanity Meter
Movement 3.84 seats
Field spread 44.8 pts — first to last on the receipt. It is not the Meter.
| # | Team | Rec | Total | Base | Chaos | Ply | Rsm | Traj | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison Sun Belt | 7–0 | 48.6 | 33.8 | 14.8 | 20.3 | 7.4 | 6.1 | Established |
| 2 | Miami (FL) ACC | 6–0 | 45.8 | 36.4 | 9.4 | 21.9 | 8.6 | 5.9 | Established |
| 3 | BYU Big 12 | 6–0 | 45.6 | 33.6 | 12.0 | 17.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | Established |
| 4 | Ohio State Big Ten | 6–1 | 43.6 | 33.5 | 10.1 | 18.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | Established |
| 5 | UCLA Big Ten | 6–0 | 43.5 | 29.3 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 6.4 | Established |
| 6 | Texas Tech Big 12 | 6–0 | 43.0 | 33.2 | 9.8 | 19.3 | 8.2 | 5.8 | Established |
| 7 | Utah Big 12 | 6–0 | 41.4 | 29.3 | 12.1 | 15.1 | 8.3 | 5.9 | Established |
| 8 | Notre Dame Independent | 6–1 | 39.4 | 35.1 | 4.3 | 21.9 | 8.3 | 4.9 | Established |
| 9 | Indiana Big Ten | 6–1 | 37.8 | 32.9 | 4.9 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 5.1 | Established |
| 10 | Georgia SEC | 6–1 | 37.2 | 32.2 | 5.0 | 17.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | Established |
| 11 | Boise State Pac-12 | 5–1 | 36.9 | 25.3 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | Established |
| 12 | Liberty CUSA | 5–1 | 36.5 | 22.7 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | Established |
| 13 | Wake Forest ACC | 6–1 | 35.5 | 21.6 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | Established |
| 14 | North Dakota State Mountain West | 6–1 | 35.0 | 21.1 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | Established |
| 15 | Ole Miss SEC | 5–1 | 33.7 | 24.3 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 5.2 | Established |
| 16 | Tennessee SEC | 6–1 | 33.0 | 23.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | Established |
| 17 | UTSA American | 6–1 | 31.0 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | Established |
| 18 | Iowa Big Ten | 5–1 | 30.8 | 19.9 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.4 | Established |
| 19 | New Mexico Mountain West | 5–1 | 30.2 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 5.6 | Established |
| 20 | Houston Big 12 | 6–1 | 27.8 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 6.1 | Established |
| 21 | Kentucky SEC | 6–1 | 24.7 | 19.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 10.6 | 6.0 | Established |
| 22 | Oregon Big Ten | 4–2 | 24.5 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 5.0 | Established |
| 23 | USC Big Ten | 6–1 | 24.5 | 18.9 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | Established |
| 24 | Texas SEC | 4–2 | 23.9 | 20.1 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.3 | Established |
| 25 | Alabama SEC | 5–2 | 23.1 | 19.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 5.5 | Established |
| 26 | LSU SEC | 5–2 | 22.1 | 17.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | Established |
| 27 | SMU ACC | 5–1 | 22.1 | 16.4 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | Established |
| 28 | Air Force Mountain West | 5–1 | 20.2 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | Established |
| 29 | Western Michigan MAC | 5–2 | 20.2 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | Established |
| 30 | Oklahoma SEC | 3–3 | 18.9 | 15.5 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | Established |
| 31 | Arizona Big 12 | 5–1 | 18.7 | 14.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | Established |
| 32 | Northwestern Big Ten | 5–1 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | Established |
| 33 | Florida SEC | 5–2 | 18.4 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 5.5 | Established |
| 34 | Michigan Big Ten | 4–2 | 18.1 | 15.0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 4.9 | Established |
| 35 | Texas A&M SEC | 4–3 | 17.2 | 13.8 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.0 | Established |
| 36 | Missouri SEC | 5–2 | 17.1 | 14.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 5.4 | Established |
| 37 | Mississippi State SEC | 4–2 | 16.8 | 14.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 5.8 | Established |
| 38 | Auburn SEC | 4–2 | 16.4 | 14.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 7.6 | 5.2 | Established |
| 39 | Ohio MAC | 5–2 | 16.3 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 6.0 | Established |
| 40 | North Carolina ACC | 4–2 | 16.0 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 6.0 | Established |
| 41 | Oregon State Pac-12 | 5–2 | 15.7 | 12.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 6.1 | Established |
| 42 | Wisconsin Big Ten | 4–2 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 6.4 | 5.4 | Established |
| 43 | Oklahoma State Big 12 | 4–2 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 6.3 | Established |
| 44 | North Texas American | 4–2 | 14.9 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | Established |
| 45 | Louisiana Sun Belt | 5–2 | 14.9 | 11.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 5.7 | Established |
| 46 | Louisville ACC | 4–3 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | Established |
| 47 | Nebraska Big Ten | 5–2 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | Established |
| 48 | Clemson ACC | 4–2 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | Established |
| 49 | Washington Big Ten | 4–3 | 14.4 | 11.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | Established |
| 50 | Minnesota Big Ten | 4–2 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 5.1 | Established |
| 51 | Kansas State Big 12 | 4–2 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 5.0 | Established |
| 52 | Baylor Big 12 | 4–2 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | Established |
| 53 | Cincinnati Big 12 | 4–2 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 5.5 | Established |
| 54 | Virginia Tech ACC | 5–2 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | Established |
| 55 | Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | 4–2 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.7 | Established |
| 56 | Memphis American | 5–2 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | Established |
| 57 | Duke ACC | 4–2 | 13.3 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | Established |
| 58 | South Carolina SEC | 3–3 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | Established |
| 59 | Pittsburgh ACC | 5–2 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | Established |
| 60 | Purdue Big Ten | 3–4 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 5.1 | Established |
| 61 | Iowa State Big 12 | 3–3 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | Established |
| 62 | UCF Big 12 | 3–3 | 12.5 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | Established |
| 63 | Toledo MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 5–2 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 5.7 | Established |
| 64 | South Alabama Sun Belt | 4–2 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 5.8 | Established |
| 65 | West Virginia Big 12 | 4–3 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 5.1 | Established |
| 66 | Arkansas SEC | 3–4 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | Established |
| 67 | NC State ACC | 3–3 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | Established |
| 68 | Florida Atlantic American | 4–2 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | Established |
| 69 | Arizona State Big 12 | 3–3 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | Established |
| 70 | Georgia State Sun Belt | 4–2 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 | Established |
| 71 | Jacksonville State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 5–2 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 6.2 | Established |
| 72 | FIU CUSA | 0–0 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Established |
| 73 | San Jose State Mountain West | 0–0 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Established |
| 74 | Hawaii Mountain West | 0–0 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Established |
| 75 | Army American Pretender Risk −4 | 4–2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 5.4 | Established |
| 76 | UMass MAC | 0–0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Established |
| 77 | Florida State ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | Established |
| 78 | South Florida American Pretender Risk −4 | 5–2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | Established |
| 79 | TCU Big 12 Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | Established |
| 80 | Tulane American Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | Established |
| 81 | UNLV Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 5.6 | Established |
| 82 | Penn State Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | Established |
| 83 | Boston College ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | Established |
| 84 | UAB American Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | Established |
| 85 | Illinois Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | Established |
| 86 | Fresno State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.1 | Established |
| 87 | Stanford ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 5.4 | Established |
| 88 | California ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 5.2 | Established |
| 89 | Texas State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 5.1 | Established |
| 90 | Colorado Big 12 Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 4.7 | Established |
| 91 | Virginia ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | Established |
| 92 | Appalachian State Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 4–2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 5.3 | Established |
| 93 | San Diego State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | Established |
| 94 | Tulsa American Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 4.8 | Established |
| 95 | Vanderbilt SEC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 | Established |
| 96 | Miami (OH) MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 5.8 | Established |
| 97 | Troy Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.7 | Established |
| 98 | Western Kentucky CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 5.8 | Established |
| 99 | Buffalo MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 4.9 | Established |
| 100 | Middle Tennessee CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 5.5 | Established |
| 101 | Kansas Big 12 Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | Established |
| 102 | Marshall Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.5 | Established |
| 103 | Michigan State Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | Established |
| 104 | East Carolina American Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4.6 | Established |
| 105 | Georgia Southern Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 4.6 | Established |
| 106 | Colorado State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 5.2 | Established |
| 107 | Wyoming Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 4–3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 5.5 | Established |
| 108 | Central Michigan MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 5.4 | Established |
| 109 | Syracuse ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.4 | Established |
| 110 | Arkansas State Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 3–4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 5.2 | Established |
| 111 | Utah State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.2 | Established |
| 112 | Georgia Tech ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4.2 | Established |
| 113 | UConn Independent Pretender Risk −4 | 3–3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4.6 | Established |
| 114 | Maryland Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.2 | Established |
| 115 | Kent State MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 5.6 | Established |
| 116 | Eastern Michigan MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 4–4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 5.4 | Established |
| 117 | Delaware CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 4.6 | Established |
| 118 | Rutgers Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.9 | Established |
| 119 | Missouri State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 4.6 | Established |
| 120 | Navy American Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 4.3 | Established |
| 121 | Ball State MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.8 | Established |
| 122 | Bowling Green MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 5.0 | Established |
| 123 | Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.7 | Established |
| 124 | New Mexico State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.6 | Established |
| 125 | Sam Houston CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.8 | Established |
| 126 | Akron MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.8 | Established |
| 127 | Kennesaw State CUSA Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 4.4 | Established |
| 128 | Charlotte American Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.6 | Established |
| 129 | Nevada Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 2–4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.0 | Established |
| 130 | Washington State Pac-12 Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 3.9 | Established |
| 131 | UTEP Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.5 | Established |
| 132 | Sacramento State MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.5 | Established |
| 133 | Southern Miss Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 1–5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | Established |
| 134 | Northern Illinois Mountain West | 0–6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | Established |
| 135 | Louisiana–Monroe Sun Belt | 0–6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.6 | Established |
| 136 | Old Dominion Sun Belt Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | Established |
| 137 | Temple American Pretender Risk −4 | 2–5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 3.5 | Established |
| 138 | Rice American Pretender Risk −4 | 1–6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | Established |
Base — can they get there/Chaos — how much fun if they do
The most-likely 12: five conference autobids plus seven at-large, seeded by playoff probability. Byes to seeds 1–4.
Highest playoff odds outside the Field. Explains absences like a lower-p conference champion taking an autobid seat.
Not in the most-likely 12, but still in the conversation. Playoff P ≥ 10% until week 9, then ≥ 5%.
No realistic path of their own. Can still end someone else's season.
5.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: UTSA
Week 15 · 51% to win · −2.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: New Mexico
Week 15 · 40% to win · −2.9 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
3.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Boise State
Week 15 · 26% to win · −3.9 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
8.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Georgia
Week 15 · 24% to win · −3.7 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
6.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Iowa
Week 10 · 47% to win · −2.9 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
1.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Liberty
Week 13 · 20% to win · −4.2 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
53 spoilers this week · top 6 by Field Impact