The Ledger
Every place the Score disagreed with consensus, written at freeze, never edited. Entries before the first live Ledger freeze were generated from the archived weekly snapshots, which are unchanged since their original freeze.
55 calls on record
Hit rate not yet — nothing has resolved. Pending 55. A Ledger that only lists wins is a marketing page; one that scores itself is a record.
AP_DIVERGENCE_OUT has fired 4 times.
FIRST_FOUR_OUT · Week 0 · backfilled
Alabama
SPOILER_NAMED · Week 0 · backfilled
Louisville
Named a spoiler; can wreck Ole Miss in Week 1
seed — · AP #24 · Δ 0 · chaos 4.2 · p=0.09
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
FIRST_FOUR_OUT · Week 0 · backfilled
LSU
First Four Out at p=0.26
seed — · AP #11 · Δ -1 · chaos 5.6 · p=0.26
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
AP_DIVERGENCE · Week 0 · backfilled
Memphis
In the Field at seed 12; AP unranked
seed 12 · AP unranked · Δ -5 · chaos 5.0 · p=0.08
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
G5_IN_FIELD · Week 0 · backfilled
Memphis
Holding the Group of Five autobid at seed 12
seed 12 · AP unranked · Δ -5 · chaos 5.0 · p=0.08
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
PRETENDER_FLAG · Week 0 · backfilled
Memphis
Pretender Risk: FCS-only résumé
seed 12 · AP unranked · Δ -5 · chaos 5.0 · p=0.08
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
FIRST_FOUR_OUT · Week 0 · backfilled
Michigan
SPOILER_NAMED · Week 0 · backfilled
Minnesota
Named a spoiler; can wreck Ohio St in Week 15
seed — · AP unranked · Δ 13 · chaos 2.6 · p=0.07
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
CHAOS_LEADER · Week 0 · backfilled
North Carolina
Most chaotic team in the sport: Chaos 7.2/40
seed — · AP unranked · Δ -12 · chaos 7.2 · p=0.10
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
SPOILER_NAMED · Week 0 · backfilled
Oklahoma St
Named a spoiler; can wreck Texas Tech in Week 15
seed — · AP unranked · Δ 21 · chaos 2.5 · p=0.07
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
SPOILER_NAMED · Week 0 · backfilled
Syracuse
Named a spoiler; can wreck Miami in Week 15
seed — · AP unranked · Δ 41 · chaos 1.5 · p=0.07
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
FIRST_FOUR_OUT · Week 0 · backfilled
Texas Tech
PRETENDER_FLAG · Week 0 · backfilled
USC
Pretender Risk: FCS-only résumé
seed — · AP #14 · Δ 3 · chaos 3.0 · p=0.19
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending
SPOILER_NAMED · Week 0 · backfilled
Wisconsin
Named a spoiler; can wreck Notre Dame in Week 1
seed — · AP unranked · Δ 35 · chaos 1.3 · p=0.07
Week 0 receipt · resolved pending