7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Miami (FL)
Week 15 · 36% to win · −1.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
Frozen Week 0 receipt (2026-w0-edge-2026-09-03). Served from the published board-full JSON — this page does not re-score.
Ranked by jansanityIndex — how much the game moves the sport, including bystanders. Top 5 on the board.
Wisconsin at Notre Dame
Week 1 · lookahead · 2026-09-06 · neutral
Louisville at Ole Miss
Week 1 · lookahead · 2026-09-06 · neutral
Baylor at Auburn
Week 1 · lookahead · 2026-09-05 · neutral
The final that moved the Field the most. Not a vibe award. Not a line on a team receipt.
Board Wrecker lights up after the next freeze that sees a final.
Score Δ vs last Sunday's frozen board. Field tape is who entered, left, or swapped a bye.
Movement starts after the Week 2 freeze. Week 0 is the first real Sunday board — there is no prior weekend to diff.
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Jansanity Meter · provisional
Movement undefined until a freeze that has a real prior
Field spread 21.3 pts — first to last on the receipt. It is not the Meter.
| # | Team | Rec | Total | Base | Chaos | Ply | Rsm | Traj | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State Big Ten | 0–0 | 27.2 | 21.3 | 5.9 | 14.7 | 1.6 | 5.0 | Building |
| 2 | Oregon Big Ten | 0–0 | 26.6 | 20.7 | 5.9 | 14.2 | 1.5 | 5.0 | Building |
| 3 | Georgia SEC | 0–0 | 26.2 | 20.3 | 5.9 | 13.7 | 1.5 | 5.0 | Building |
| 4 | Notre Dame Independent | 0–0 | 25.5 | 19.9 | 5.6 | 13.2 | 1.7 | 5.0 | Building |
| 5 | Miami (FL) ACC | 0–0 | 23.8 | 18.0 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 5.0 | Building |
| 6 | Texas SEC | 0–0 | 23.0 | 19.2 | 3.8 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 5.0 | Building |
| 7 | Ole Miss SEC | 0–0 | 22.7 | 17.1 | 5.6 | 10.8 | 1.3 | 5.0 | Building |
| 8 | Oklahoma SEC | 0–0 | 22.2 | 16.6 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 1.3 | 5.0 | Building |
| 9 | Indiana Big Ten | 0–0 | 22.0 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 5.0 | Building |
| 10 | LSU SEC | 0–0 | 21.7 | 16.1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 5.0 | Building |
| 11 | BYU Big 12 | 0–0 | 20.7 | 14.4 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 12 | Texas A&M SEC | 0–0 | 20.5 | 17.6 | 2.9 | 11.3 | 1.4 | 5.0 | Building |
| 13 | Texas Tech Big 12 | 0–0 | 20.2 | 15.5 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 5.0 | Building |
| 14 | North Carolina ACC | 1–0 | 19.8 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 6.0 | Building |
| 15 | Alabama SEC | 0–0 | 17.7 | 15.1 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 5.0 | Building |
| 16 | Michigan Big Ten | 0–0 | 17.2 | 13.5 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | Building |
| 17 | USC Big Ten Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 16.6 | 13.6 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 5.3 | Building |
| 18 | Penn State Big Ten | 0–0 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 19 | SMU ACC | 0–0 | 15.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 20 | Washington Big Ten | 0–0 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 21 | Memphis American Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 5.6 | Building |
| 22 | Houston Big 12 | 0–0 | 14.0 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | Building |
| 23 | Tennessee SEC | 0–0 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 24 | Louisville ACC | 0–0 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 5.0 | Building |
| 25 | Northwestern Big Ten | 0–0 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 26 | Utah Big 12 | 0–0 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | Building |
| 27 | Mississippi State SEC | 0–0 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 28 | Eastern Michigan MAC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | Building |
| 29 | Iowa Big Ten | 0–0 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 30 | Kentucky SEC | 0–0 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 31 | Iowa State Big 12 | 0–0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 32 | Nebraska Big Ten | 0–0 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 33 | Kansas Big 12 | 0–0 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 34 | Missouri SEC | 0–0 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 35 | Colorado Big 12 | 0–0 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 36 | Kansas State Big 12 | 0–0 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 37 | NC State ACC | 0–1 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 3.5 | Building |
| 38 | Michigan State Big Ten | 0–0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 39 | Minnesota Big Ten | 0–0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 40 | Purdue Big Ten | 0–0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 41 | Florida SEC | 0–0 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 42 | Cincinnati Big 12 | 0–0 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 43 | Pittsburgh ACC | 0–0 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 44 | Virginia ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 6.2 | Building |
| 45 | Florida State ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 5.5 | Building |
| 46 | James Madison Sun Belt | 0–0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 47 | Oklahoma State Big 12 | 0–0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 48 | Navy American | 0–0 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 49 | Auburn SEC | 0–0 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 50 | South Carolina SEC | 0–0 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 51 | Georgia Tech ACC | 0–0 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 52 | Maryland Big Ten | 0–0 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 53 | Rutgers Big Ten | 0–0 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 54 | Arkansas SEC | 0–0 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 55 | North Texas American | 0–0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 56 | UCLA Big Ten | 0–0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 57 | Duke ACC | 0–0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 58 | Vanderbilt SEC | 0–0 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.0 | Building |
| 59 | Baylor Big 12 | 0–0 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 60 | Illinois Big Ten | 0–0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 61 | Wisconsin Big Ten | 0–0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 5.0 | Building |
| 62 | Rice American | 0–0 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 63 | Arizona State Big 12 | 0–0 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 64 | Clemson ACC | 0–0 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 65 | Arizona Big 12 | 0–0 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 66 | UCF Big 12 | 0–0 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 67 | Syracuse ACC | 0–0 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 68 | North Dakota State Mountain West Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 5.7 | Building |
| 69 | West Virginia Big 12 | 0–0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 70 | California ACC | 0–0 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 71 | Florida Atlantic American | 0–0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 72 | Louisiana Sun Belt | 0–0 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 73 | Boston College ACC | 0–0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 74 | Virginia Tech ACC | 0–0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 75 | South Florida American | 0–0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 76 | Wake Forest ACC | 0–0 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 77 | Georgia State Sun Belt | 0–0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 78 | Louisiana–Monroe Sun Belt | 0–0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 79 | Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | 0–0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 80 | Central Michigan MAC | 0–0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 81 | Tulane American | 0–0 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 82 | Boise State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 83 | East Carolina American | 0–0 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 84 | Stanford ACC Pretender Risk −4 | 1–0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 5.3 | Building |
| 85 | TCU Big 12 | 0–1 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 4.0 | Building |
| 86 | Georgia Southern Sun Belt | 0–0 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 87 | Kent State MAC | 0–0 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 88 | Temple American | 0–0 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 89 | Miami (OH) MAC | 0–0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 90 | Army American | 0–0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 91 | Buffalo MAC | 0–0 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 92 | Colorado State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 93 | Oregon State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 94 | Utah State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 95 | Charlotte American | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 96 | Marshall Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 97 | Ohio MAC | 0–0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 98 | Fresno State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 99 | San Diego State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 100 | Texas State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 101 | Washington State Pac-12 | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 102 | Tulsa American | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 103 | Air Force Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 104 | Coastal Carolina Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 105 | Old Dominion Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 106 | UAB American | 0–0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 107 | UTSA American | 0–0 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 108 | Nevada Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 109 | Bowling Green MAC | 0–0 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 110 | New Mexico Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 111 | Northern Illinois Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 112 | Arkansas State Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 113 | UTEP Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 114 | Wyoming Mountain West | 0–0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 115 | Appalachian State Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 116 | UConn Independent | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 117 | South Alabama Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 118 | Southern Miss Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 119 | Liberty CUSA | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 120 | Toledo MAC | 0–0 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 121 | Troy Sun Belt | 0–0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 122 | Ball State MAC | 0–0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 123 | Delaware CUSA | 0–0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 124 | Kennesaw State CUSA | 0–0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 125 | Akron MAC | 0–0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 126 | UMass MAC | 0–0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 127 | Western Michigan MAC | 0–0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 128 | FIU CUSA | 0–0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 129 | Middle Tennessee CUSA | 0–0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 130 | Missouri State CUSA | 0–0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 131 | Sam Houston CUSA | 0–0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 132 | Western Kentucky CUSA | 0–0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 5.0 | Building |
| 133 | Sacramento State MAC | 0–1 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.9 | Building |
| 134 | Hawaii Mountain West | 0–1 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | Building |
| 135 | San Jose State Mountain West | 0–1 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | Building |
| 136 | UNLV Mountain West | 0–1 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | Building |
| 137 | Jacksonville State CUSA | 0–1 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | Building |
| 138 | New Mexico State CUSA | 0–1 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 3.2 | Building |
Base — can they get there/Chaos — how much fun if they do
The most-likely 12: five conference autobids plus seven at-large, seeded by playoff probability. Byes to seeds 1–4.
Highest playoff odds outside the Field. Explains absences like a lower-p conference champion taking an autobid seat.
Not in the most-likely 12, but still in the conversation. Playoff P ≥ 10% until week 9, then ≥ 5%.
No realistic path of their own. Can still end someone else's season.
7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Miami (FL)
Week 15 · 36% to win · −1.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Notre Dame
Week 1 · 31% to win · −3.1 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Ohio State
Week 15 · 33% to win · −1.4 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
7.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Texas Tech
Week 15 · 40% to win · −0.8 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.
9.0% playoff odds
Can wreck: Ole Miss
Week 1 · 35% to win · −1.6 pts
No path of their own.
Can end someone else's season.